Autonomous Over-Under: 2020
How soon will we have practical autonomous cars? There are so many factors that determine timing:
- How safe are the systems compared to human drivers?
- How fast will ride sharing companies embrace them?
- How will competition force acceleration of deployment?
- How will regulators enable or block a deployment?
- Will cities compete to be first?
I was chatting with some friends about the space, and we were inclined to place bets on when we might see a real deployment. What is “real”? Here are some rules:
- Available to end consumers, not just a tech demo.
- In at least one American city.
- The car comes to you without a driver in it.
- The car autonomously drives point-A to point-B in the city
There are some enabling technologies that might work under the hood that I don’t think impact the experience. For example, it might be a monitored drive where a remote tele-operator can wrest control. It
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